Saturday, January 29, 2011

Whither the Egyptian Military?

A lot of people seem to think that the outcome of the situation in Egypt depends on what role the Egyptian military takes, and who they back.  Here is an interesting article about this issue, from Al Jazeera.

To be honest, I don't even know enough about this to have an opinion (how unusual) but I thought it was a good read.

Update:  No good deed goes unpunished, of course:

"Egypt Shuts Down Al Jazeera Cairo bureau."


magpie said...

Yeah interesting. Another article there asks why Obama hasn't uttered the 'D' word, meaning "democracy"?

I think no-one saw this coming, no-one sees where it is going, and no-one wants to wake up to the news and find they've given impetus to the wrong elements.

Except the Right, of course, who love a good bloodbath as long as someone else does the bleeding.

Infidel753 said...

That's what it always comes down to in these situations -- if the military is ordered to open fire on its own people, will it obey? The game was up for Ben Ali when the Tunisian military refused.

As for whether the hoped-for fall of Mubarak turns out to be a good thing or a bad thing, that depends on whether Islamist or secular-democratic elements come out on top afterwards, which is impossible to predict now. It's encouraging that the slogans and imagery used in the uprising so far don't seem particularly Islamist. Also, remember that Egypt has a much bigger Christian minority than other Arab countries.

A lot of Americans seem to take very little interest in the situation in Egypt except insofar as they can find an angle allowing them to either praise or blame the West for something. That isn't very relevant to what's really going on.

Green Eagle said...

"remember that Egypt has a much bigger Christian minority than other Arab countries."

Unfortunately, given the way the Copts have been treated lately, that may turn out to mean that many more people to slaughter in an outburst of "religious fervor."

Infidel753 said...

Well, there was this.