Sunday, January 15, 2017

The Trump Presidency and How It Will Unfold

Well, we are now getting confirmation from a number of intelligence agencies that Donald Trump is indeed deeply compromised by the Russians.  When you add this to the blatant, grotesque corruption in the manner he is refusing to divest himself of his business interests, his picking a cabinet committed to violating his Constitutional duty to see the law is faithfully enforced, and his use of his visibility to engage in petty vendettas against anyone who criticises him, we now have a spectrum of absolute justifications for his impeachment, and he hasn't even been sworn in yet.

Well, what can we expect from Congress?  Well, first of all, let's get this out in the open.  Every person remaining in the Republican party is as big a crook as Trump is, so don't look to them to do a thing about this just because it is the right thing to do.

Here is how I think this is going to play out.  In all the attention devoted to the overwhelming likelihood that Vladimir Putin is blackmailing Trump, to get him to dismantle our intelligence capacity, destroy our participation in NATO, remove sanctions on Russia, and generally do anything he is told, to betray our country to this foreign dictator, what has not been noticed is that Trump has opened himself up to almost certain blackmail from another source, and that is the Republicans in Congress.

The truth is that the Republican majority can kick him out in the street any time it wants, on all sorts of grounds.  So Trump had damned well better figure out, and damned fast too, that the minute he moves into the White House he had damned well better to do exactly what Congressional Republicans tell him to do, and sign whatever bills the Republicans send to him, without one word of complaint, or else they are going to destroy him, and in a public manner that will make the humiliation of Richard Nixon look like a minor embarrassment.  This is their chance to finally enact their piggish, crooked agenda in all its horrible glory, and they are going to take it, and as fast as possible too, and he had better not get ideas that he is in charge of the agenda.

So the reality is that Trump's behavior has essentially made the executive branch of the government utterly powerless and subservient to Congress, for as long as he is President.  Now, how long will this go on?  Well, impotent as Trump may be, he will have one power left to him, and that is to precipitate an almost daily deluge of phenomenal humiliations on this country and on his party.  And you know that he would do that without any incitement, let alone what he will get up to in order to get back at Congress.

How long can this go on, before even Republican Congressmen can't take the disgrace any more?  I'm guessing four to six months.  At that point, I suspect, that even as corrupt as they are, Congressional Republicans won't be able to leave things as they stand, and we will be in for the final Trump circus- an impeachment in which he fights back with every dirty trick he ever learned (and he knows plenty,) and makes things as absolutely painful to the rest of the country as he can.  After that, we get Pence, or very possibly Congress will make him resign too, and we will be faced with the petrifying reality of a Paul Ryan Presidency.

So, when the big show comes, enjoy it while you can.  Once Paul Ryan takes over, you aren't going to have a thing to laugh about for a long time.

2 comments:

ez said...

Welcome to the Psychoticracy.

Anonymous said...

Honestly, I've gotten out of the 'making predictions about Trump' business. It's been a string of fantastic fails for all who try.

That said, this prediction of the Trump Presidency is really quite interesting. I never imagined the congress as blackmailer. Sounds pretty possible.

But not the Pence part. They'll keep him sitting there with his pen handy to sign that crap that they're going to send him.