So now, Nate Silver, along with a whole lot of people, is predicting that the Republicans are going to take back the Senate. I am not so sure and (of course) I am about to tell you why.
First of all, let me remind you that polling has never been that predictive of electoral results before around September of an election year. That is because the "swing voters" that decide every election are mostly so apathetic and ignorant that they don't even start putting in their minimal effort to figure out who to vote for until then.
But that is not my real point. Elections are about more than numbers. Here is something which, of course, no one, including Nate Silver, is talking about: The Republican need to pander to their base to keep them on board has, in the last few elections, inevitably resulted in regular outbreaks of lunacy and hatred from its candidates. Do they think that this election will be any different? Do they think that they can get through this election without more talk about the 47%, and more racist dogwhistles? I doubt it, and I am willing to predict that there will be at least a couple of outbreaks of ugliness from Republican candidates between now and November.
Of course, it is up to the Dems to capitalize on these accidental revelations of the Republicans' real nature, by convincing people that the are representative of the party as a whole (which they are.) That, of course, depends on Democratic "strategists" making the right moves. Sad to say, that is all too unlikely. But the opportunity will be there, so the election is still the Democrats' to lose. Which they may happily do; just don't blame it on Obamacare or Libya or anything else but the long-standing refusal of Democratic politicians to tell the truth, when they are afraid the Republicans will be really mean to them for doing so.