Sunday, April 27, 2014

A Prediction About the 2014 Election

Many people seem to have already written off the 2014 Congressional elections for Democrats, including Nate Silver, whose predictions that Republicans will retain control of the House and very likely take control of the Senate have received widespread publicity.

There is, however, one factor that Silver's mathematical models cannot predict.  That is the likelihood that, between now and November, in keeping with past behavior, a number of Republican adherents are going to do and say things that will prove a serious embarrassment for them.

I think Cliven Bundy was the first of these "gaffes" this year- gaffes which always consist in failing to conceal what Republicans really believe.  There will be others, and from people more connected with the party establishment.  Yes, it will be necessary for Democrats to take advantage of these Republican lapses, and yes, Democrats have proven sadly inept at doing so, but this year's Republican fools will be appearing any time now, and as in the past, they provide a chance to damage the massively financed Republican electoral juggernaut.

It has been my observation that polls, in general, don't really tell us that much before the September before an election.  I'll stick with that.  Now, bring on the clowns.


Infidel753 said...

Ah, yes, the dreaded "Akin factor". Well, Abbott in Texas hasn't yet seen fit to distance himself from Ted Nugent, so that's a promising sign. And there are plenty of crazies out there primarying establishment Republicans who are no longer nutty enough for the base. We should get at least an O'Donnell or two.

Infidel753 said...

(I'm assuming you meant to say 2014 election.)

Green Eagle said...

Right you are, as always, Infidel. That's what happens when Green Eagle is blogging at 7 in the morning on Sunday. I'll avoid that in the future.

By the way, great link roundup today, again as always. People can see it here- take a look:

Paul Avery said...

You are right about Repubicans gone feral. They are like two-year-olds with Tommy guns...just as likely to shoot themselves as their opponents.
However, with the combination of opening the floodgates of corporate money by the corporate lackeys on the Supreme Court, gerrymandering and voter supression schemes, and the overall voter apathy brought about timid Democratic candidates, it most likely the election, at best, will result in maintaining the status quo.