Thursday, October 25, 2012

How Soon They Forget

All anyone wants to talk about are the debates.  To listen to people from one end of the political spectrum to the other, the debates are the only thing affecting people's opinions.  Here's a sample, from Daily Kos, which I normally think is as good as it gets when you want the truth:

"On one level, that is potentially problematic news for the Obama camp. That is another day of post-debate interviews being fed into these polls (with the notable exception of the AP poll, which was almost entirely conducted pre-debate), and the movement thus far seems to be comprised primarily of float and noise within the margins of error. While that is not devastating news for the president, it is an (early) sign that another decisive debate win has come and gone without any apparent "bounce" in the head-to-head polling."

But is that really true?  Here's some data of polling results:

It's a little hard to see the months marked at the bottom of this graph, but it is clear that Romney's surge began in late September, before the first debate.  And it's sort of hard to explain how Romney could have gotten such a basically unprecedented boost from a debate win, while Obama failed to get much of anything from an equally convincing win.  I am going to be so self promoting as to point out that I predicted this on the day of the last debate.

Well, here's what everyone seems to have forgotten:  Citizens United.  People saw that first debate once, if they saw it at all, but they are now being bombarded with hundreds of misleading Republican campaign ads every day on radio and TV.  And, sad to say, it is having an effect.  Americans have come one step closer to an electoral process that can be bought and sold, and no one seems to be interested in talking about it. Fifty years of unrelenting effort on the part of Republicans to pack the Supreme Court with corrupt Justices have paid off.  As the country's demographics lean inexorably toward the Democrats, nothing can save the antediluvian Republican party except rigging the vote.  They have been working on this for a long, long time, and they may have finally crafted a way to succeed at destroying democracy.

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