Friday, January 8, 2016

Green Eagle's Assessment of the Republican Race

It is perhaps the height of madness to make a prediction about the Republican Presidential nominee, given all the upheaval that has happened this year, but Green Eagle, always ready to step in where wiser people fear to tread,  is going to make his prediction about how things will turn out.  And if, as is perhaps inevitable, this is all comically wrong, well, it wont be the first time for me.

I want to begin with an observation about the feelings of the Republican "mainstream," i.e. the majority of Republican leaders who have been bought and paid for by the 100 or so hyper rich families that have controlled the party for a couple of decades now.  Contrary to what just about everyone has been saying, I do not think they are opposed to the presence of Trump one bit; and here is why: I believe they see him performing a very useful task, which is to see that no other wacko right wing candidate can get any air at all, so that there is no danger of one of them (read Ted Cruz here, who they really hate) gets any real traction beyond his factional base.  I believe that the rich Republicans feel that they can get Trump out any time they want to, particularly because, as a billionaire, he is one of them, and in the end is going to see things the same way they do.  So, these rich sociopaths can save their money for the general election.

So, who is left standing when that happens?  Well, I think two of the formerly possible "mainstream" candidates (i.e. the ones who have the sense to keep their mouths shut about what they really intend to do once they are elected,) i.e. Scott Walker and Marco Rubio, have already demonstrated their inability to survive a general election even as well as Romney did.

Well, that leaves just one guy left, doesn't it.  And I want to remind you of something I have said before: the last time the rich guys did not pick the Republican candidate was with Barry Goldwater, and they have sure as hell done what they need to see that never happens again.

Yup, the miserable, worthless Jeb!  I still believe that in the end, the rich guys are going to cram Jeb down the throats of their insane base; and remember the old saying: "Democrats fall in love; Republicans fall in line."  The guys who really control things will be confident that, in the end, the suckers can be made to hate Hillary or Bernie so much that they will vote for the Republican no matter how they loathe him.

Well, time will tell.



Update:  I see a poll today showing Bush at 9% of Republican voters.  That doesn't seem too great, but it is a lot of progress compared to the 3-4% he was at a couple of weeks ago, and is not that far behind Cruz, at 12%, and Rubio, at 15%.  Bush is carrying out a very successful "rope-a-dope" strategy, I think, riding out his earlier flubs, and waiting to emerge as the party's savior in early spring.  His biggest problem now is going to be the idiot mainstream press, which has a narrative of his collapse which they are going to be too lazy to rethink; other than that, don't count him out.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

and who do the democrats have? Peter,Paul and Mary?

Why should the dems even bother having a primary. They already anointed the witch

Jerry Critter said...

"... the suckers can be made to hate Hillary or Bernie so much that they will vote for the Republican no matter how they loathe him."

Switch Republican for Democrat and that is me. I will vote for any democrat over any republican.

Green Eagle said...

But Jerry, that is just false equivalence. Voting for a flawed candidate because the alternative is a corrupt liar is not the same as voting for that corrupt liar because his party has stoked your hatred for forty years.

johninoregon said...

The "idiot mainstream press" may be stuck for now on a narrative of Jeb(!)'s collapse, but I suspect that a comeback-kid story would serve their needs just as well. I think the biggest question is whether the mad-as-hell base would fall in line with a Bush candidacy or go third party---especially if Trump is willing to be their candidate.

Magpie said...

For all of our concern and people who believe in witches... this moment in history is actually a vast crisis for the Republican Party. And every which way they lose.

If they go with a pig-ignorant demagogue they will be obliterated, but if they go with an establishment candidate, basically meaning Jeb!, they will still lose and in the aftermath their more uneducated base will say it's because they didn't go with a demagogue - because they're not rational people and don't understand that more alcohol doesn't make you less drunk.

The situation is still a bit volatile to call but at this moment I would say Trump and Clinton. Once it gets past the hysteria and the xenophobia and the general freak-show, it gets to the real deal where normal people ask what this guy or gal will mean to their grocery bills, their jobs, their kids. They won't vote for an extremist, they will vote for a bland centrist.

Then over the coming years gun control becomes for Clinton what healthcare was for Obama. Pull your stormy weather gear on tight for that one.

Anonymous said...

I hate the idea of another Bush/Clinton race for president.
If Trump has the Republican vote behind him (as he does) I don't think he will just give it to Jeb, or anyone else. Trump is not the type to do what the Republican leaders say when the Republican voters are backing him.

Green Eagle said...

"Republican leaders." By that, I suppose you are referring to sociopathic billionaires who finance their rampages.

Well, in case you haven't noticed, Trump is a sociopathic billionaire too, and he knows what is in his best interest, just like they do. He is not their enemy, despite his pandering to ignorant white poor people, he is one of them.

The ultimate Republican insurgent- another billionaire. You couldn't write a more improbable farce, but people seem to be eating it up.

Anonymous said...

Who do you mean by "Republican leaders?" You used the term in your rant. Not sure why you ASSume nobody knows anything but you.

Green Eagle said...

I assume you know nothing, Anonymous, because you have demonstrated that fact over and over again. Everyone else knows perfectly well what I am saying.

As I have said before, I am not really trying to convince anyone of anything with this blog. All I am trying to do is leave behind a record that someone (in reality many people) saw exactly what was going on. From the great depression to the invasion of Iraq, and a thousand times in between, Republicans have shouted down opposition to their insane policies, and then spent decades claiming "nobody could have known." Well, plenty of people knew; they just weren't allowed a voice. I can't do much to change that, but at least I will have done my small part to demonstrate that anyone who cared to see the truth saw it perfectly well.

Anonymous said...

OMG another delusional jack ass who thinks he's correct on everything and the only one who knows the truth. Take your meds!

Green Eagle said...

I assume I am correct on just about everything I comment on in public, because I spend a great deal of time making sure that I am. And a long history has proven me right in the vast majority of things I have had to say.

You, on the other hand, Anonymous, are nothing but a Republican tool that laps up every lie he hears, because his greed and hatred lead him to accept the miserable Republican stock of lies as the truth.